'What’s Law Got to Do With It? Legalization and Post-Conflict Autonomy Success'

Territorial power-sharing remains a persistent feature of contemporary conflict resolution. Between 1990 and 2020, as many as 230 peace agreements with territorial power-sharing provisions were signed – a figure which averages more than seven agreements per year. Existing research has identified a number of factors that impact the sustainability of such arrangements, including previous levels of violence, the level of economic development in a given territory, and the strategic importance thereof. We posit, however, that the manner in which territorial power-sharing is legally prescribed has an impact on agreement stability. To test this hypothesis, we use a qualitative content analysis based on Abbott et al’s theory of legalization to screen all 228 peace agreements with territorial power-sharing provisions in the PA-X database. We then use regression analyses to gauge social stress levels in the relevant regions vis-à-vis conflict event data drawn from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project. We argue that highly legalized power-sharing provisions have a positive effect on post-conflict autonomy success.