What’s Law Got to Do with It? How the Degree of Legalization Affects the Durability of Post-Conflict Autonomy Agreements

Research has identified several factors that impact the sustainability of post-conflict territorial autonomy arrangements (TAA), including previous levels of violence, economic development in a given territory, or the strategic importance thereof. We argue that a hitherto neglected variable lies in the legal form of the autonomy agreement—that is, the degree to which it has been ‘legalized’ by the language and processes prescribed in the agreement. Based on a qualitative evaluation, we assess the legalization degree of 236 TAA signed between 1990 and 2019. Survival analyses and Cox regression models show that a higher degree of legalization has a positive and significant effect on peace durability.