The Impact of Brexit Debates on Irish Exports: a Causality Analysis

The UK decision to leave the EU has larger implications for Ireland due to its significant exposure to the UK economy. As such a no-deal Brexit scenario raises significant concerns regarding the impact, the magnitude and the lasting effects of the shock to the Irish economy. Leading up to the final weeks before the UK leaves the EU, this study explores the relationship between economic and political uncertainty surrounding Brexit and its potential causal effects to the Irish economy. The agriculture, manufacturing, chemical and pharmaceutical sectors are the focus of attention as they are considered to be the most exposed to the UK market. The research findings suggest that the manufacturing and food sectors would be the most impacted in the short run. The research findings are of particular interest to stock market players and policy makers that can gain a better understanding on short-term dynamics on the Irish export sectors.