Spillover Effects of Grocery Bag Legislation: Evidence of Bag Bans and Bag Fees

We investigate the unintended consequences of carryout grocery bag (CGB) regulations by looking at the impact on sales of alternative plastic bag products. We extend the literature by studying two types of CGB regulations, bag bans and bag fees. Using retail scanner data and employing a general synthetic control method, we find that both types of CGB regulations are associated with significantly higher plastic trash bag sales. We estimate that CGB regulations lead to an average increase in purchased plastics of 127 pounds per store per month, ranging from 30 to 135 (37–224) pounds for 4-gallon (8-gallon) trash bags. These results confirm previous findings on bag bans and provide new evidence on bag fees. In general, the effects do not differ across CGB regulations, but some heterogeneity exists. Our results highlight unintentional spillover effects of narrowly targeted policies on other unregulated waste.