Quantitative analysis of ATM safety issues using retrospective accident data: The dynamic risk modelling project

The "dynamic risk modelling project" was a research activity aimed at developing a simulation approach able to provide a quantitative analysis of some critical activities of air traffic control (ATC) operators considering the organizational context in which they take place, the main cognitive processes underneath, and the possibility to inform the analysis using retrospective accident data. The pilot study presented in the present paper is aimed at providing an overview of possible opportunities related to the use of a cognitive simulator within the Eurocontrol framework called ConOps (which is a detailed description of future operational concept for air traffic in Europe). The approach chosen within the field of HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) made use of a cognitive simulator developed within the Department of Industrial Engineering in Politecnico di Milano. The simulator was built based on an Information Processing Level very much compatible with the one embedded in a method used by Eurocontrol for collecting accident data named HERA. Thanks to this similarity the pilot application was able to modify the calibration process of the simulator and make use of the retrospective accident data that was available in Eurocontrol collected using the HERA classification scheme. The resulting approach can interact with standard risk assessment methodologies in order to analyze the criticalities arising from human performance in the ATC working contexts in the light of past experience.