TY - JOUR
T1 - Mortality burden of diurnal temperature range and its temporal changes
T2 - A multi-country study
AU - Lee, Whanhee
AU - Bell, Michelle L.
AU - Gasparrini, Antonio
AU - Armstrong, Ben G.
AU - Sera, Francesco
AU - Hwang, Sunghee
AU - Lavigne, Eric
AU - Zanobetti, Antonella
AU - Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio
AU - Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento
AU - Osorio, Samuel
AU - Tobias, Aurelio
AU - Zeka, Ariana
AU - Goodman, Patrick G.
AU - Forsberg, Bertil
AU - Rocklöv, Joacim
AU - Hashizume, Masahiro
AU - Honda, Yasushi
AU - Guo, Yue Liang Leon
AU - Seposo, Xerxes
AU - Van Dung, Do
AU - Dang, Tran Ngoc
AU - Tong, Shilu
AU - Guo, Yuming
AU - Kim, Ho
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2018/1
Y1 - 2018/1
N2 - Although diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a key index of climate change, few studies have reported the health burden of DTR and its temporal changes at a multi-country scale. Therefore, we assessed the attributable risk fraction of DTR on mortality and its temporal variations in a multi-country data set. We collected time-series data covering mortality and weather variables from 308 cities in 10 countries from 1972 to 2013. The temporal change in DTR-related mortality was estimated for each city with a time-varying distributed lag model. Estimates for each city were pooled using a multivariate meta-analysis. The results showed that the attributable fraction of total mortality to DTR was 2.5% (95% eCI: 2.3–2.7%) over the entire study period. In all countries, the attributable fraction increased from 2.4% (2.1–2.7%) to 2.7% (2.4–2.9%) between the first and last study years. This study found that DTR has significantly contributed to mortality in all the countries studied, and this attributable fraction has significantly increased over time in the USA, the UK, Spain, and South Korea. Therefore, because the health burden of DTR is not likely to reduce in the near future, countermeasures are needed to alleviate its impact on human health.
AB - Although diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a key index of climate change, few studies have reported the health burden of DTR and its temporal changes at a multi-country scale. Therefore, we assessed the attributable risk fraction of DTR on mortality and its temporal variations in a multi-country data set. We collected time-series data covering mortality and weather variables from 308 cities in 10 countries from 1972 to 2013. The temporal change in DTR-related mortality was estimated for each city with a time-varying distributed lag model. Estimates for each city were pooled using a multivariate meta-analysis. The results showed that the attributable fraction of total mortality to DTR was 2.5% (95% eCI: 2.3–2.7%) over the entire study period. In all countries, the attributable fraction increased from 2.4% (2.1–2.7%) to 2.7% (2.4–2.9%) between the first and last study years. This study found that DTR has significantly contributed to mortality in all the countries studied, and this attributable fraction has significantly increased over time in the USA, the UK, Spain, and South Korea. Therefore, because the health burden of DTR is not likely to reduce in the near future, countermeasures are needed to alleviate its impact on human health.
KW - Attributable mortality risk fraction
KW - Climate change
KW - Diurnal temperature range
KW - Time-varying effect
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85032366587&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.envint.2017.10.018
DO - 10.1016/j.envint.2017.10.018
M3 - Article
C2 - 29089167
AN - SCOPUS:85032366587
SN - 0160-4120
VL - 110
SP - 123
EP - 130
JO - Environment International
JF - Environment International
ER -