Minimum mortality temperature by cause of death and age group: A multi-country observational study (1990–2019)

Seunghyun Eom; Aurelio Tobias; Masahiro Hashizume; Daewon Yang; Claire Demoury; Eric Lavigne; Aleš Urban; Klea Katsouyanni; Francesco Sera; Paul Lester Carlos Chua; Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva; Dominic Royé; Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera; Antonio Gasparrini; Ben Armstrong; Ariana Zeka; Joel Schwartz; Rosana Abrutzky; Mariska Bauwelinck; Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho; Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva; Samuel Osorio; Patricia Matus Correa; Nicolás Valdés Ortega; Yuming Guo; Haidong Kan; Jan Kyselý; Jouni J.K. Jaakkola; Niilo Ryti; Mathilde Pascal; Antonis Analitis; Fatemeh Mayvaneh; Alireza Enteyari; Patrick Goodman; Paola Michelozzi; Francesca de'Donato; Yoonhee Kim; Chris Fook Sheng Ng; Lina Madaniyazi; John Paul Cauchy; Magali Hurtado Diaz; Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano; Shilpa Rao; Xerxes Seposo; Joana Madureira; Noah Scovronick; Fiorella Acquaotta; Ho Kim; Whanhee Lee; Carmen Íñiguez; Bertil Forsberg; Martina S. Ragettli; Yue Leon Guo; Shih Chun Pan; Shanshan Li; Antonella Zanobetti; Tran Ngoc Dang; Do Van Dung; Hans Orru; Ene Indermitte; Yeonseung Chung

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2026.125043

Minimum mortality temperature by cause of death and age group: A multi-country observational study (1990–2019)

Seunghyun Eom
, Aurelio Tobias
, Masahiro Hashizume
, Daewon Yang
, Claire Demoury
, Eric Lavigne
, Aleš Urban
, Klea Katsouyanni
, Francesco Sera
, Paul Lester Carlos Chua
, Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva
, Dominic Royé
, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
, Antonio Gasparrini
, Ben Armstrong
, Ariana Zeka
, Joel Schwartz
, Rosana Abrutzky
, Mariska Bauwelinck
, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho

Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Samuel Osorio, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolás Valdés Ortega, Yuming Guo, Haidong Kan, Jan Kyselý, Jouni J.K. Jaakkola, Niilo Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Antonis Analitis, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Alireza Enteyari, Patrick Goodman, Paola Michelozzi, Francesca de'Donato, Yoonhee Kim, Chris Fook Sheng Ng, Lina Madaniyazi, John Paul Cauchy, Magali Hurtado Diaz, Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano, Shilpa Rao, Xerxes Seposo, Joana Madureira, Noah Scovronick, Fiorella Acquaotta, Ho Kim, Whanhee Lee, Carmen Íñiguez, Bertil Forsberg, Martina S. Ragettli, Yue Leon Guo, Shih Chun Pan, Shanshan Li, Antonella Zanobetti, Tran Ngoc Dang, Do Van Dung, Hans Orru, Ene Indermitte, Yeonseung Chung

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important feature of temperature-mortality relationship, defined as the temperature at which mortality risk is lowest. Although numerous studies have estimated MMT for all-cause mortality, few have explored differences by age or cause of death. We analyzed daily mean temperature and mortality data from 667 communities across 39 countries. Mortality was classified by age and cause of death (cardiovascular, respiratory, or non-cardiorespiratory). A two-stage meta-analytic approach was applied to estimate the MMT and its corresponding percentile (MMTP) by age and cause of death. In the overall population, MMT was the highest for cardiovascular mortality (22.1 °C, 95% CI: 20.9–23.4 °C), whereas respiratory and non-cardiorespiratory causes were 0.87 °C and 0.66 °C lower, respectively, than that for cardiovascular causes. Similar patterns were observed for MMTP, which was highest for cardiovascular mortality (75%, 95% CI: 73–78%) and lower by 5% and 4% for respiratory and non-cardiorespiratory causes, respectively. MMT increased with age for cardiovascular (0.19 °C per 10 years, 95% CI: 0.14–0.23) and non-cardiorespiratory causes (0.13 °C per 10 years, 95% CI: 0.09–0.16). These patterns were generally consistent across geographical regions. Overall, both MMT and MMTP differed by cause of death and age, indicating that the optimal temperature varies across population subgroups.

Original language	English
Article number	125043
Number of pages	9
Journal	Environmental Research
Volume	305
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2026.125043
Publication status	Published - 1 Sept 2026

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being

Keywords

Age and cause-specific mortality
Minimum mortality temperature
Multi-city multi-country study
Temperature-related mortality
Two-stage meta-analysis

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10.1016/j.envres.2026.125043

Cite this

Eom, S., Tobias, A., Hashizume, M., Yang, D., Demoury, C., Lavigne, E., Urban, A., Katsouyanni, K., Sera, F., Chua, P. L. C., da Silva, S. D. N. P., Royé, D., Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Gasparrini, A., Armstrong, B., Zeka, A., Schwartz, J., Abrutzky, R., Bauwelinck, M., ... Chung, Y. (2026). Minimum mortality temperature by cause of death and age group: A multi-country observational study (1990–2019). Environmental Research, 305, Article 125043. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2026.125043

@article{62415ce1267e4d3f9e7cbf2bdb286e37,

title = "Minimum mortality temperature by cause of death and age group: A multi-country observational study (1990–2019)",

abstract = "Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important feature of temperature-mortality relationship, defined as the temperature at which mortality risk is lowest. Although numerous studies have estimated MMT for all-cause mortality, few have explored differences by age or cause of death. We analyzed daily mean temperature and mortality data from 667 communities across 39 countries. Mortality was classified by age and cause of death (cardiovascular, respiratory, or non-cardiorespiratory). A two-stage meta-analytic approach was applied to estimate the MMT and its corresponding percentile (MMTP) by age and cause of death. In the overall population, MMT was the highest for cardiovascular mortality (22.1 °C, 95\% CI: 20.9–23.4 °C), whereas respiratory and non-cardiorespiratory causes were 0.87 °C and 0.66 °C lower, respectively, than that for cardiovascular causes. Similar patterns were observed for MMTP, which was highest for cardiovascular mortality (75\%, 95\% CI: 73–78\%) and lower by 5\% and 4\% for respiratory and non-cardiorespiratory causes, respectively. MMT increased with age for cardiovascular (0.19 °C per 10 years, 95\% CI: 0.14–0.23) and non-cardiorespiratory causes (0.13 °C per 10 years, 95\% CI: 0.09–0.16). These patterns were generally consistent across geographical regions. Overall, both MMT and MMTP differed by cause of death and age, indicating that the optimal temperature varies across population subgroups.",

keywords = "Age and cause-specific mortality, Minimum mortality temperature, Multi-city multi-country study, Temperature-related mortality, Two-stage meta-analysis",

author = "Seunghyun Eom and Aurelio Tobias and Masahiro Hashizume and Daewon Yang and Claire Demoury and Eric Lavigne and Ale{\v s} Urban and Klea Katsouyanni and Francesco Sera and Chua, \{Paul Lester Carlos\} and \{da Silva\}, \{Susana das Neves Pereira\} and Dominic Roy{\'e} and Vicedo-Cabrera, \{Ana Maria\} and Antonio Gasparrini and Ben Armstrong and Ariana Zeka and Joel Schwartz and Rosana Abrutzky and Mariska Bauwelinck and Coelho, \{Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio\} and Saldiva, \{Paulo Hilario Nascimento\} and Samuel Osorio and Correa, \{Patricia Matus\} and Ortega, \{Nicol{\'a}s Vald{\'e}s\} and Yuming Guo and Haidong Kan and Jan Kysel{\'y} and Jaakkola, \{Jouni J.K.\} and Niilo Ryti and Mathilde Pascal and Antonis Analitis and Fatemeh Mayvaneh and Alireza Enteyari and Patrick Goodman and Paola Michelozzi and Francesca de'Donato and Yoonhee Kim and Ng, \{Chris Fook Sheng\} and Lina Madaniyazi and Cauchy, \{John Paul\} and \{Hurtado Diaz\}, Magali and \{F{\'e}lix Arellano\}, \{Eunice Elizabeth\} and Shilpa Rao and Xerxes Seposo and Joana Madureira and Noah Scovronick and Fiorella Acquaotta and Ho Kim and Whanhee Lee and Carmen {\'I}{\~n}iguez and Bertil Forsberg and Ragettli, \{Martina S.\} and Guo, \{Yue Leon\} and Pan, \{Shih Chun\} and Shanshan Li and Antonella Zanobetti and Dang, \{Tran Ngoc\} and Dung, \{Do Van\} and Hans Orru and Ene Indermitte and Yeonseung Chung",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2026 Elsevier Inc.",

year = "2026",

month = sep,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1016/j.envres.2026.125043",

language = "English",

volume = "305",

journal = "Environmental Research",

issn = "0013-9351",

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Eom, S, Tobias, A, Hashizume, M, Yang, D, Demoury, C, Lavigne, E, Urban, A, Katsouyanni, K, Sera, F, Chua, PLC, da Silva, SDNP, Royé, D, Vicedo-Cabrera, AM, Gasparrini, A, Armstrong, B, Zeka, A, Schwartz, J, Abrutzky, R, Bauwelinck, M, Coelho, MDSZS, Saldiva, PHN, Osorio, S, Correa, PM, Ortega, NV, Guo, Y, Kan, H, Kyselý, J, Jaakkola, JJK, Ryti, N, Pascal, M, Analitis, A, Mayvaneh, F, Enteyari, A, Goodman, P, Michelozzi, P, de'Donato, F, Kim, Y, Ng, CFS, Madaniyazi, L, Cauchy, JP, Hurtado Diaz, M, Félix Arellano, EE, Rao, S, Seposo, X, Madureira, J, Scovronick, N, Acquaotta, F, Kim, H, Lee, W, Íñiguez, C, Forsberg, B, Ragettli, MS, Guo, YL, Pan, SC, Li, S, Zanobetti, A, Dang, TN, Dung, DV, Orru, H, Indermitte, E & Chung, Y 2026, 'Minimum mortality temperature by cause of death and age group: A multi-country observational study (1990–2019)', Environmental Research, vol. 305, 125043. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2026.125043

TY - JOUR

T1 - Minimum mortality temperature by cause of death and age group

T2 - A multi-country observational study (1990–2019)

AU - Eom, Seunghyun

AU - Tobias, Aurelio

AU - Hashizume, Masahiro

AU - Yang, Daewon

AU - Demoury, Claire

AU - Lavigne, Eric

AU - Urban, Aleš

AU - Katsouyanni, Klea

AU - Sera, Francesco

AU - Chua, Paul Lester Carlos

AU - da Silva, Susana das Neves Pereira

AU - Royé, Dominic

AU - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria

AU - Gasparrini, Antonio

AU - Armstrong, Ben

AU - Zeka, Ariana

AU - Schwartz, Joel

AU - Abrutzky, Rosana

AU - Bauwelinck, Mariska

AU - Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio

AU - Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento

AU - Osorio, Samuel

AU - Correa, Patricia Matus

AU - Ortega, Nicolás Valdés

AU - Guo, Yuming

AU - Kan, Haidong

AU - Kyselý, Jan

AU - Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.

AU - Ryti, Niilo

AU - Pascal, Mathilde

AU - Analitis, Antonis

AU - Mayvaneh, Fatemeh

AU - Enteyari, Alireza

AU - Goodman, Patrick

AU - Michelozzi, Paola

AU - de'Donato, Francesca

AU - Kim, Yoonhee

AU - Ng, Chris Fook Sheng

AU - Madaniyazi, Lina

AU - Cauchy, John Paul

AU - Hurtado Diaz, Magali

AU - Félix Arellano, Eunice Elizabeth

AU - Rao, Shilpa

AU - Seposo, Xerxes

AU - Madureira, Joana

AU - Scovronick, Noah

AU - Acquaotta, Fiorella

AU - Kim, Ho

AU - Lee, Whanhee

AU - Íñiguez, Carmen

AU - Forsberg, Bertil

AU - Ragettli, Martina S.

AU - Guo, Yue Leon

AU - Pan, Shih Chun

AU - Li, Shanshan

AU - Zanobetti, Antonella

AU - Dang, Tran Ngoc

AU - Dung, Do Van

AU - Orru, Hans

AU - Indermitte, Ene

AU - Chung, Yeonseung

PY - 2026/9/1

Y1 - 2026/9/1

N2 - Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important feature of temperature-mortality relationship, defined as the temperature at which mortality risk is lowest. Although numerous studies have estimated MMT for all-cause mortality, few have explored differences by age or cause of death. We analyzed daily mean temperature and mortality data from 667 communities across 39 countries. Mortality was classified by age and cause of death (cardiovascular, respiratory, or non-cardiorespiratory). A two-stage meta-analytic approach was applied to estimate the MMT and its corresponding percentile (MMTP) by age and cause of death. In the overall population, MMT was the highest for cardiovascular mortality (22.1 °C, 95% CI: 20.9–23.4 °C), whereas respiratory and non-cardiorespiratory causes were 0.87 °C and 0.66 °C lower, respectively, than that for cardiovascular causes. Similar patterns were observed for MMTP, which was highest for cardiovascular mortality (75%, 95% CI: 73–78%) and lower by 5% and 4% for respiratory and non-cardiorespiratory causes, respectively. MMT increased with age for cardiovascular (0.19 °C per 10 years, 95% CI: 0.14–0.23) and non-cardiorespiratory causes (0.13 °C per 10 years, 95% CI: 0.09–0.16). These patterns were generally consistent across geographical regions. Overall, both MMT and MMTP differed by cause of death and age, indicating that the optimal temperature varies across population subgroups.

AB - Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important feature of temperature-mortality relationship, defined as the temperature at which mortality risk is lowest. Although numerous studies have estimated MMT for all-cause mortality, few have explored differences by age or cause of death. We analyzed daily mean temperature and mortality data from 667 communities across 39 countries. Mortality was classified by age and cause of death (cardiovascular, respiratory, or non-cardiorespiratory). A two-stage meta-analytic approach was applied to estimate the MMT and its corresponding percentile (MMTP) by age and cause of death. In the overall population, MMT was the highest for cardiovascular mortality (22.1 °C, 95% CI: 20.9–23.4 °C), whereas respiratory and non-cardiorespiratory causes were 0.87 °C and 0.66 °C lower, respectively, than that for cardiovascular causes. Similar patterns were observed for MMTP, which was highest for cardiovascular mortality (75%, 95% CI: 73–78%) and lower by 5% and 4% for respiratory and non-cardiorespiratory causes, respectively. MMT increased with age for cardiovascular (0.19 °C per 10 years, 95% CI: 0.14–0.23) and non-cardiorespiratory causes (0.13 °C per 10 years, 95% CI: 0.09–0.16). These patterns were generally consistent across geographical regions. Overall, both MMT and MMTP differed by cause of death and age, indicating that the optimal temperature varies across population subgroups.

KW - Age and cause-specific mortality

KW - Minimum mortality temperature

KW - Multi-city multi-country study

KW - Temperature-related mortality

KW - Two-stage meta-analysis

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105042529241

U2 - 10.1016/j.envres.2026.125043

DO - 10.1016/j.envres.2026.125043

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:105042529241

SN - 0013-9351

VL - 305

JO - Environmental Research

JF - Environmental Research

M1 - 125043

ER -

Minimum mortality temperature by cause of death and age group: A multi-country observational study (1990–2019)

Abstract

UN SDGs

Keywords

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