TY - JOUR
T1 - Heat wave and mortality
T2 - A multicountry, multicommunity study
AU - Guo, Yuming
AU - Gasparrini, Antonio
AU - Armstrong, Ben G.
AU - Tawatsupa, Benjawan
AU - Tobias, Aurelio
AU - Lavigne, Eric
AU - De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline
AU - Pan, Xiaochuan
AU - Kim, Ho
AU - Hashizume, Masahiro
AU - Honda, Yasushi
AU - Leon Guo, Yue Liang
AU - Wu, Chang Fu
AU - Zanobetti, Antonella
AU - Schwartz, Joel D.
AU - Bell, Michelle L.
AU - Scortichini, Matteo
AU - Michelozzi, Paola
AU - Punnasiri, Kornwipa
AU - Li, Shanshan
AU - Tian, Linwei
AU - Garcia, Samuel David Osorio
AU - Seposo, Xerxes
AU - Overcenco, Ala
AU - Zeka, Ariana
AU - Goodman, Patrick
AU - Dang, Tran Ngoc
AU - Van Dung, Do
AU - Mayvaneh, Fatemeh
AU - Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento
AU - Williams, Gail
AU - Tong, Shilu
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2017, Public Health Services, US Dept of Health and Human Services. All rights reserved.
PY - 2017/8
Y1 - 2017/8
N2 - Background: Few studies have examined variation in the associations between heat waves and mortality in an international context. Objectives: We aimed to systematically examine the impacts of heat waves on mortality with lag effects internationally. Methods: We collected daily data of temperature and mortality from 400 communities in 18 countries/regions and defined 12 types of heat waves by combining community-specific daily mean temperature ≥ 90th, 92.5th, 95th, and 97.5th percentiles of temperature with duration ≥ 2, 3, and 4 d. We used time-series analyses to estimate the community-specific heat wave-mortality relation over lags of 0-10 d. Then, we applied meta-analysis to pool heat wave effects at the country level for cumulative and lag effects for each type of heat wave definition. Results: Heat waves of all definitions had significant cumulative associations with mortality in all countries, but varied by community. The higher the temperature threshold used to define heat waves, the higher heat wave associations on mortality. However, heat wave duration did not modify the impacts. The association between heat waves and mortality appeared acutely and lasted for 3 and 4 d. Heat waves had higher associations with mortality in moderate cold and moderate hot areas than cold and hot areas. There were no added effects of heat waves on mortality in all countries/regions, except for Brazil, Moldova, and Taiwan. Heat waves defined by daily mean and maximum temperatures produced similar heat wave-mortality associations, but not daily minimum temperature. Conclusions: Results indicate that high temperatures create a substantial health burden, and effects of high temperatures over consecutive days are similar to what would be experienced if high temperature days occurred independently. People living in moderate cold and moderate hot areas are more sensitive to heat waves than those living in cold and hot areas. Daily mean and maximum temperatures had similar ability to define heat waves rather than minimum temperature.
AB - Background: Few studies have examined variation in the associations between heat waves and mortality in an international context. Objectives: We aimed to systematically examine the impacts of heat waves on mortality with lag effects internationally. Methods: We collected daily data of temperature and mortality from 400 communities in 18 countries/regions and defined 12 types of heat waves by combining community-specific daily mean temperature ≥ 90th, 92.5th, 95th, and 97.5th percentiles of temperature with duration ≥ 2, 3, and 4 d. We used time-series analyses to estimate the community-specific heat wave-mortality relation over lags of 0-10 d. Then, we applied meta-analysis to pool heat wave effects at the country level for cumulative and lag effects for each type of heat wave definition. Results: Heat waves of all definitions had significant cumulative associations with mortality in all countries, but varied by community. The higher the temperature threshold used to define heat waves, the higher heat wave associations on mortality. However, heat wave duration did not modify the impacts. The association between heat waves and mortality appeared acutely and lasted for 3 and 4 d. Heat waves had higher associations with mortality in moderate cold and moderate hot areas than cold and hot areas. There were no added effects of heat waves on mortality in all countries/regions, except for Brazil, Moldova, and Taiwan. Heat waves defined by daily mean and maximum temperatures produced similar heat wave-mortality associations, but not daily minimum temperature. Conclusions: Results indicate that high temperatures create a substantial health burden, and effects of high temperatures over consecutive days are similar to what would be experienced if high temperature days occurred independently. People living in moderate cold and moderate hot areas are more sensitive to heat waves than those living in cold and hot areas. Daily mean and maximum temperatures had similar ability to define heat waves rather than minimum temperature.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85031012715&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1289/EHP1026
DO - 10.1289/EHP1026
M3 - Article
C2 - 28886602
AN - SCOPUS:85031012715
SN - 0091-6765
VL - 125
JO - Environmental Health Perspectives
JF - Environmental Health Perspectives
IS - 8
ER -