GMDH-based Models for Mid-term Forecast of Cryptocurrencies (on example of Waves)

Pavel Mogilev, Anna Boldyreva, Mikhail Alexandrov, John Cardiff

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Cryptocurrencies became one of the main trends in modern economy. However by the moment the forecast of cryptocurrencies values is an open problem, which is almost non-reflected in publications related to finance market. Reasons consist in its novelty, large volatility and its strong dependence on subjective factors. In this experimental research we show possibilities of GMDH-technology to give weekly and monthly forecast for values of cryptocurrency 'Waves' (waves/euro rate). The source information is week data covering the period 2017-2019. We tests 4 algorithms from the GMDH Shell platform on the whole period and on the crisis period 4-th quarter 2017 - 2nd quarter 2018. Baseline is provided by the popular statistical method of double exponential smoothing. The results of Pilot study can be considered as the very promising ones having in view the large variability of data.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2020 IEEE 15th International Scientific and Technical Conference on Computer Sciences and Information Technologies, CSIT 2020 - Proceedings
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages13-16
Number of pages4
ISBN (Electronic)9781728174433
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 23 Sep 2020
Event15th IEEE International Scientific and Technical Conference on Computer Sciences and Information Technologies, CSIT 2020 - Lviv-Zbarazh, Ukraine
Duration: 23 Sep 202026 Sep 2020

Publication series

NameInternational Scientific and Technical Conference on Computer Sciences and Information Technologies
Volume2
ISSN (Print)2766-3655
ISSN (Electronic)2766-3639

Conference

Conference15th IEEE International Scientific and Technical Conference on Computer Sciences and Information Technologies, CSIT 2020
Country/TerritoryUkraine
CityLviv-Zbarazh
Period23/09/2026/09/20

Keywords

  • cryptocurrency
  • GMDH
  • GMDH Shell
  • time series

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