An analysis of possession outcomes following turnovers and throw-ups in sub-elite Gaelic football

This study investigated possessions following turnovers and throw-ups in sub-elite Gaelic football, an area previously investigated only at the elite level. A total of 1735 possessions from 48 championship matches involving 67 teams across the 2023 and 2024 seasons were analysed. Binary logistic regression was employed to model the key predictors of successful possessions following turnovers and throw-ups. Turnovers won in contact significantly increased the likelihood of a score (p =.012). Possession durations between 31 and 90 s were associated with higher scoring rates (p <.001). Although descriptive statistics indicated that more passes led to more scores, the regression analysis revealed possession sequences of 1–10 passes were more likely to lead to successful possessions (p =.004). The first action following a turnover significantly predicted possession success. Periods of 1–90 s ball out of play increased scoring odds (p <.001). The findings of the current study provide novel insights into transition play and possession effectiveness in sub-elite Gaelic football, with practical implications for coaching and analysis.