TY - JOUR
T1 - All-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and wildfire-related ozone
T2 - a multicountry two-stage time series analysis
AU - Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network
AU - Chen, Gongbo
AU - Guo, Yuming
AU - Yue, Xu
AU - Xu, Rongbin
AU - Yu, Wenhua
AU - Ye, Tingting
AU - Tong, Shilu
AU - Gasparrini, Antonio
AU - Bell, Michelle L.
AU - Armstrong, Ben
AU - Schwartz, Joel
AU - Jaakkola, Jouni J.K.
AU - Lavigne, Eric
AU - Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento
AU - Kan, Haidong
AU - Royé, Dominic
AU - Urban, Aleš
AU - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
AU - Tobias, Aurelio
AU - Forsberg, Bertil
AU - Sera, Francesco
AU - Lei, Yadong
AU - Abramson, Michael J.
AU - Li, Shanshan
AU - Abrutzky, Rosana
AU - Alahmad, Barrak
AU - Ameling, Caroline
AU - Åström, Christofer
AU - Breitner, Susanne
AU - Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel
AU - Coêlho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio
AU - Colistro, Valentina
AU - Correa, Patricia Matus
AU - Dang, Tran Ngoc
AU - de'Donato, Francesca
AU - Dung, Do Van
AU - Entezari, Alireza
AU - Garcia, Samuel David Osorio
AU - Garland, Rebecca M.
AU - Goodman, Patrick
AU - Guo, Yue Leon
AU - Hashizume, Masahiro
AU - Holobaca, Iulian Horia
AU - Honda, Yasushi
AU - Houthuijs, Danny
AU - Hurtado-Díaz, Magali
AU - Íñiguez, Carmen
AU - Katsouyanni, Klea
AU - Kim, Ho
AU - Kyselý, Jan
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
PY - 2024/7
Y1 - 2024/7
N2 - Background: Wildfire activity is an important source of tropospheric ozone (O3) pollution. However, no study to date has systematically examined the associations of wildfire-related O3 exposure with mortality globally. Methods: We did a multicountry two-stage time series analysis. From the Multi-City Multi-Country (MCC) Collaborative Research Network, data on daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths were obtained from 749 locations in 43 countries or areas, representing overlapping periods from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2016. We estimated the daily concentration of wildfire-related O3 in study locations using a chemical transport model, and then calibrated and downscaled O3 estimates to a resolution of 0·25° × 0·25° (approximately 28 km2 at the equator). Using a random-effects meta-analysis, we examined the associations of short-term wildfire-related O3 exposure (lag period of 0–2 days) with daily mortality, first at the location level and then pooled at the country, regional, and global levels. Annual excess mortality fraction in each location attributable to wildfire-related O3 was calculated with pooled effect estimates and used to obtain excess mortality fractions at country, regional, and global levels. Findings: Between 2000 and 2016, the highest maximum daily wildfire-related O3 concentrations (≥30 μg/m3) were observed in locations in South America, central America, and southeastern Asia, and the country of South Africa. Across all locations, an increase of 1 μg/m3 in the mean daily concentration of wildfire-related O3 during lag 0–2 days was associated with increases of 0·55% (95% CI 0·29 to 0·80) in daily all-cause mortality, 0·44% (–0·10 to 0·99) in daily cardiovascular mortality, and 0·82% (0·18 to 1·47) in daily respiratory mortality. The associations of daily mortality rates with wildfire-related O3 exposure showed substantial geographical heterogeneity at the country and regional levels. Across all locations, estimated annual excess mortality fractions of 0·58% (95% CI 0·31 to 0·85; 31 606 deaths [95% CI 17 038 to 46 027]) for all-cause mortality, 0·41% (–0·10 to 0·91; 5249 [–1244 to 11 620]) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0·86% (0·18 to 1·51; 4657 [999 to 8206]) for respiratory mortality were attributable to short-term exposure to wildfire-related O3. Interpretation: In this study, we observed an increase in all-cause and respiratory mortality associated with short-term wildfire-related O3 exposure. Effective risk and smoke management strategies should be implemented to protect the public from the impacts of wildfires. Funding: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.
AB - Background: Wildfire activity is an important source of tropospheric ozone (O3) pollution. However, no study to date has systematically examined the associations of wildfire-related O3 exposure with mortality globally. Methods: We did a multicountry two-stage time series analysis. From the Multi-City Multi-Country (MCC) Collaborative Research Network, data on daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths were obtained from 749 locations in 43 countries or areas, representing overlapping periods from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2016. We estimated the daily concentration of wildfire-related O3 in study locations using a chemical transport model, and then calibrated and downscaled O3 estimates to a resolution of 0·25° × 0·25° (approximately 28 km2 at the equator). Using a random-effects meta-analysis, we examined the associations of short-term wildfire-related O3 exposure (lag period of 0–2 days) with daily mortality, first at the location level and then pooled at the country, regional, and global levels. Annual excess mortality fraction in each location attributable to wildfire-related O3 was calculated with pooled effect estimates and used to obtain excess mortality fractions at country, regional, and global levels. Findings: Between 2000 and 2016, the highest maximum daily wildfire-related O3 concentrations (≥30 μg/m3) were observed in locations in South America, central America, and southeastern Asia, and the country of South Africa. Across all locations, an increase of 1 μg/m3 in the mean daily concentration of wildfire-related O3 during lag 0–2 days was associated with increases of 0·55% (95% CI 0·29 to 0·80) in daily all-cause mortality, 0·44% (–0·10 to 0·99) in daily cardiovascular mortality, and 0·82% (0·18 to 1·47) in daily respiratory mortality. The associations of daily mortality rates with wildfire-related O3 exposure showed substantial geographical heterogeneity at the country and regional levels. Across all locations, estimated annual excess mortality fractions of 0·58% (95% CI 0·31 to 0·85; 31 606 deaths [95% CI 17 038 to 46 027]) for all-cause mortality, 0·41% (–0·10 to 0·91; 5249 [–1244 to 11 620]) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0·86% (0·18 to 1·51; 4657 [999 to 8206]) for respiratory mortality were attributable to short-term exposure to wildfire-related O3. Interpretation: In this study, we observed an increase in all-cause and respiratory mortality associated with short-term wildfire-related O3 exposure. Effective risk and smoke management strategies should be implemented to protect the public from the impacts of wildfires. Funding: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85197272393&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00117-7
DO - 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00117-7
M3 - Article
C2 - 38969473
AN - SCOPUS:85197272393
SN - 2542-5196
VL - 8
SP - e452-e462
JO - The Lancet Planetary Health
JF - The Lancet Planetary Health
IS - 7
ER -