A risk framework for the delivery of long-term performance through the large-scale energy focused retrofit of housing

The 2019 Climate Action Plan (Ireland) seeks to retrofit approximately 500,000 existing homes to attain a B2 Building Energy Rating by 2030. Although not without merit, this presents a number of risks. The authors, through a review of relevant literature and a survey of leading experts in the field of domestic retrofit, set out to explore if and how the implementation, execution, and performance of retrofit strategies that utilise a uniform approach to the retrofit of the decidedly non-uniform existing dwelling stock could create un-intended consequences. It is demonstrated how issues related to indoor air quality, comfort and overheating may occur due to the narrow focus of housing retrofit on regulated energy. It also established that the application of theoretical modelling can affect dwelling performance. These issues could have significant health and wellbeing impacts on occupants and, furthermore, could be exacerbated by the impacts of climate change. The research incorporates a risk assessment which examined the interdependent factors, including areas that require further research, that present a risk in large-scale deep retrofit. The findings have implications for the policy framework. Without action, there is a risk that the retrofitted dwellings of today become the ‘hard to treat’ dwellings of the future.