A predictive model to compare the factors influencing oat and barley β-glucan levels in harvested grain

Cereal β-glucans have gained importance as functional bioactive components and are desirable for human consumption. Among cereals, oats and barley β-glucans are well known for many health benefits, this has encouraged the food industry to develop new functional foods for consumers. This study aims to develop a farm-level baseline model (including scenario analysis) to compare and assess the impact of pre- and post-harvest stages (i.e. cultivar selection, environmental and agronomic factors etc.) influencing the level of β-glucan content in the harvested oat and barley grains. Monte Carlo simulation techniques were employed to model various levels of content in both hulled and naked oats and barley cultivars. The simulated β-glucan level was 3.50 and 4.10 g/100g for harvested hulled oats and barley, respectively, whereas it was 4.25 and 5.68 g/100g for naked oats and barley, respectively. The naked cultivars of both oats and barley are nutritionally superior to the hulled cultivars in terms of β-glucan levels, this results in a greater potential for industrial applications. A sensitivity analysis highlighted that cultivar selection was the most important parameter in both oats and barley for determining the final β-glucan level when compared to other environmental and agronomical factors. The scenario analysis highlights the importance of storage, germination and harvesting date for both oats and barley cultivars and the positive effect of delayed sowing for oats. This approach establishes a quantitative scientific ranking of factors influencing β-glucan levels during the cultivation of oats and barley.