PRedicting Energy using Dynamic Indicators in a Calibrated Tool

Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs), also known as Building Energy Ratings (BERs) in Ireland, are crucial for understanding energy use in building stocks across the European Union. They play an important role in climate policy. However, concerns have arisen about the robustness of EPC data.

EPCs are now used beyond their initial purpose. For example, they form the basis for offering lower green mortgage rates. Financial institutions also use them to assess renovation costs associated with poor ratings when calculating mortgage repayment capacities.

EPC methodologies involve trade-offs between reproducibility, accuracy, assessor expertise, and costs. Since input data often relies on worst-case defaults and standardized operating conditions, EPC results provide only an estimation of actual building energy consumption. While this standardization ensures consistency for similar dwellings, it lacks specificity for individual ones. There is often a significant gap between the theoretical predictions and the actual energy consumption of homes, which hinders achieving energy savings.

This research addresses this issue by developing an adaptive in-use factor (IUF). The IUF allows a standardized EPC to be more tailored to a building’s specific use, thereby increasing the validity of EPCs for individual buildings.